Republicans Have Generic Legislative Advantage, Tea Party An Asset

Arkansas Republicans have a generic advantage over Democrats in the preliminary stages of next year’s state legislative races, according to new polling data released by Talk Business and Hendrix College.

"Next year’s legislative elections will be very high-profile locally and at the state level," said Talk Business & Politics executive editor Roby Brock. "And with control of the state House and state Senate hanging in the balance, how these competitive local legislative races play out will dictate a number of major policy and leadership decisions."

In a statewide survey of 2,101 respondents conducted last week, the poll found that Arkansas voters preferred a Republican candidate over a Democratic one by about 6%; however, a large group of undecideds — 31% — remain up for grabs.

Q: In next year’s elections, do you plan to vote for a Republican candidate for your state legislator, a Democratic candidate for your state legislator, a third party candidate, or are you undecided?

34.5%     Republican
28.5%     Democrat
6%          Third party candidate
31%        Don’t know

Answers to this question among Congressional Districts break down as follows:

District 1 – 33% Republican/ 29% Democrat / 7% Other/ 31% Don’t Know
District 2 – 34% Republican/ 31% Democrat / 6% Other/ 29% Don’t Know
District 3 – 39% Republican/ 24% Democrat / 5% Other/ 32% Don’t Know
District 4 – 30% Republican/ 31.5% Democrat / 6% Other/ 32.5% Don’t Know

"If Arkansas is a purple state at this juncture, it is probably a reddish-purple right now," said professor of political science at Hendrix College Dr. Jay Barth, who helped construct and analyze the poll. "We don’t see the traditional advantage that comes with being a Democrat in Arkansas. The state legislature is clearly winnable by either party based on which one can recruit candidates who have ties to their communities and have the personal skills that pay off in local elections."

This latest Talk Business-Hendrix College survey also found that by a slim margin more Arkansans have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party movement than those who have an unfavorable opinion. Nearly 4 out of 5 Arkansans had an opinion on the movement.

Q: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement?

41%     Favorable
37%     Unfavorable
22%     Don’t know

"Other polling we’re seeing from different parts of the country suggest the Tea Party’s negatives have grown significantly across time," Barth said. "But in Arkansas, there’s a clear vision for what the Tea Party is and it’s a positive one. Barth noted that Republicans strongly support the movement and Democrats strongly oppose it, but pivotal Independent voters have a generally positive opinion of the Tea Party.

"It’s doing quite well among Independents," he added. "And while it is a divisive entity in Arkansas, it’s certainly not creating an albatross for Republicans like it is in other parts of the country."

CROSS-TAB ANALYSIS
An examination of the cross-tabs from the polls underscores Barth’s observations:

• Republicans favor GOP candidates for the state legislature by a 78% margin, while 17% of Republicans are unsure if they’ll vote for a GOP legislative candidate.
• Roughly 74% of Democrats said they will be voting for their party’s candidates next year in the state House and Senate, while 21% said they didn’t know if Democratic candidates would get their votes.
• Among voters who identified themselves as Independent, 31% said they would vote GOP for the state legislature, while 13.5% said they’d vote Democrat, 12.5% said they’d vote for a third party candidate, and 43% said they were undecided.
• Tea Party support was very polarized by political party. 68.5% of Republicans had a favorable opinion of the movement, while 72% of Democrats held an unfavorable view.
• Among Independents, 50% had a favorable view of the Tea Party movement in Arkansas. Independents holding an unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party totaled 30%, while 20% of Independents did not have an opinion.

Earlier this week, we released polling data on Congressional approval numbers for Arkansas’ four Congressmen and President Obama’s job approval rating. On Thursday, we’ll release survey results on Arkansas attitudes regarding the West Memphis 3 case and we’ll release our full poll results.

POLL BACKGROUND & NOTES
The results of this combined poll came from four polls that were conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College on Thursday, September 15, 2011. The polls were completed using IVR survey technology among registered Arkansas voters in all 4 of the state’s Congressional Districts. A combined 2,101 Arkansas voters were surveyed in the final results, which have a margin of error of +/-2.1%.

All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business and Hendrix College.

For interviews, Brock can be reached by email at [email protected]. Barth can be contacted at [email protected].