The battleground election in central Arkansas' Second Congressional district is likely to be the most discussed political race of the fall, even more than the state's high-profile U.S. Senate race.

You could not have a more clearly defined choice of candidates between GOP nominee Tim Griffin, an attorney and former Bush staffer who worked in political operations with Karl Rove, and Democrat Joyce Elliott, a former educator and union organizer who has championed a number of progressive causes in the Arkansas legislature.

Male vs. female, white vs. black, conservative vs. liberal, Republican vs. Democrat: This race will leave little to the middle ground and it will certainly produce a bombardment on the airwaves in the Little Rock media market from third party groups that will rival the Lincoln-Halter Senate primary.

Today, the Arkansas Election Line - a joint venture between Blake’s Think Tank, The Tolbert Report and Talk Business - rates the Second District Congressional race as "Leans Griffin."

Griffin is a conservative candidate who has run a disciplined campaign with a consistent message of right-of-center policy positions.  He is for a balanced budget, smaller government, and less regulation and he's opposed to most, if not all, of Pres. Obama's policies regarding health care, the environment, and job creation.

Elliott, a state senator, does not shy away from a fight and has often been a champion for the underprivileged and underrepresented in her years of public service at the state capitol. She too is a conservative budgeter and has votes for tax cuts in her record.  However, she views the role of government in a more activist light compared to her opponent and has advocated for expanded health care access, tougher environmental regulations, and a federal stimulus to stoke the economy.

Independent Lance Levi has also qualified, but has not shown much of a visible campaign yet and is unlikely to impact this race significantly unless the political environment changes.

Griffin gets the edge today because of several factors.

1) Arkansas is trending conservative this election cycle as it rejects the activism of the Obama Presidency. Poll after poll, and gut instinct, reflect that voters are angry with the party in power - the Democrats - at this juncture. This voter discontent aids Griffin.

2) Griffin's path to victory may be easier than Elliott's. He must win by big margins in the 7 counties outside of Pulaski County and he is capable of doing so.  Elliott won only Pulaski County in her primary and run-off races. While Pulaski County will dominate the district's final vote tally, Elliott will be combatting a perception that she can't compete outside of the capital city.

3) Griffin must also do better than Republicans typically do in Pulaski County. With major fall legislative races in the conservative western section of the county, Griffin could see a boost in GOP votes in this off-year election.

4) Veteran voters, which have largely supported retiring Democrat and former Marine Cong. Vic Snyder, are likely to vote for Griffin in large numbers this year. He is a 14-year member of the U.S. Army Reserve.

5) From a fundraising perspective, Griffin has proven to be better at the money game. Conversely, you could argue that Elliott has done more with less. Regardless, both candidates will have ample funding for the general election, but Republicans have not always had enough money to compete against the Democrat in this seat. This year will be different.

6) From a communications perspective, Griffin's use of new media and his campaign's ability to rapidly respond is superior to Elliott's. This will be an advantage for the GOP nominee as the attack ads rain down on him. Elliott appears less prepared to widely and quickly respond to charges.

7) Will race be a factor? I'd like to think it won't be. But because the answer to that question is unknown, one has to consider that it will be and it could cut either positively or negatively for Elliott. Will race help her with African-American voters aiming to elect the first black female to federal office from Arkansas? Will it prejudice white conservative voters prone to support Democrats in general elections? Or will the two scenarios neutralize each other?

With all of that said, Elliott will be formidable in the fall. The raw numbers of the Second Congressional District suggest that if Elliott performs well in Pulaski County - as she has in the past - and can hold down her margins of defeat in larger counties in the district, such as Saline and Faulkner counties, she has a realistic chance of winning. She has also shown the ability to overperform in her core voter base, a factor that will be hard to read for the general election.

The Arkansas Election Line expects the dynamics of this race to roil during the next four months.  Outside expenditure groups will attack (and support) both Elliott and Griffin on votes, quotes, careers, legislative experience and their stated positions.

This race will garner national attention due to Elliott's historical candidacy as an African-American female and Griffin's ties to Bush and his controversial, short-lived U.S. Attorney appointment.  Field organizations will influence this race tremendously as the Griffin-Elliott GOTV efforts coordinate with their party apparatuses and other dominant state races, such as the Senate and Governor campaigns.

All of these intangibles could swing this race to one candidate's favor - or make the race ultra-competitive. We look forward to re-evaluating the Second District match-up early and often.

RECOMMENDED READING:
Jason Tolbert of The Tolbert Report
Blake Rutherford of Blake's Think Tank

ADDITIONAL ARK. ELECTION LINE RATINGS:
U.S. Senate - Safe Boozman
U.S. Congress, District 3 - Safe Womack
U.S. Congress, District 4 - Safe Ross

NEXT: U.S. Congress, District 1
STILL TO COME: Statewide Constitutional Offices, including Governor.