Truck driver turnover rate rises to 90%, driver shortage might worsen

The driver turnover rate at truckload carriers rose 16 percentage points to 90% in the second quarter of the year, from the previous period, a sign the driver market is tightening quickly, said Bob Costello, chief economist for the American Trucking Associations.

This might be the start of a worsening in the driver shortage, he said.

“We predicted that last year’s period of relatively low and stable turnover could be short-lived if the freight economy recovered from 2016’s freight recession,” Costello said. “It appears those predictions were correct.”

Both small and large truckload carriers reported double digits increases in turnover. The 16-point increase was the highest jump in the turnover rate since the fourth quarter of 2010. The 90% turnover rate was the highest it’s been since the fourth quarter of 2015.

Small carriers, with revenue of less than $30 million annually, saw the rate rise 19 percentage points to 85%, and was the highest it’s been since the first quarter of 2016.

The turnover rate was mixed for less-than-truckload fleets. The rate for over-the-road LTL carriers declined one point to 9%, while the rate for local LTL carriers rose two percentage points to 14%, the highest rate in three years.

Between 2014 and 2024, the number of heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers is expected to rise 5% or by 98,800 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In May 2016, there were 1.704 million drivers.

Between 2014 and 2024, 890,000 new drivers will need to be hired, or 88,970 per year on average, according to the ATA’s Truck Driver Shortage Analysis 2015.