Energy consumption is expected to rise 28% globally, between 2015 and 2040, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. On Thursday (Sept. 14), the EIA released the International Energy Outlook 2017, projecting the increase.
The majority of the consumption increase should come from countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India, is expected to account for more than 60% of the rise in consumption between 2015 and 2040.
Use of all fuel sources for energy production is expected to rise, with the exception of coal, which is projected to remain flat. Renewable energy consumption is expected to rise 2.3% annually between 2015 and 2040, and will be the fastest-growing energy source. Nuclear power consumption will increase 1.5% annually over the period, the second-fastest growing source of energy.
Fossil fuels will account for more than 75% of global energy consumption through 2040. Natural gas consumption is expected to increase 1.4% annually over the period. “The relatively high rate of natural gas consumption growth is attributed to abundant natural gas resources and rising production — including supplies of tight gas, shale gas and coalbed methane,” according to the EIA. The share of liquid fuels, which are mostly petroleum based, that are used for energy production is projected to fall to 31% in 2040, from 33% in 2015. “As oil prices rise, energy consumers are expected to turn to more energy-efficient technologies and switch away from liquid fuels where possible.”
China uses the most coal in the world, but its use there is expected to fall 0.6% annually, between 2015 and 2040. Coal use is also expected to fall 0.6% annually in OECD countries. The share of coal consumption for energy production is expected to fall to 22% in 2040, from 27% in 2015. “World coal consumption would be even lower in 2040 were it not for the projected increases in its use by non-OECD Asian nations outside of China.”
Click here to see the International Energy Outlook 2017.