Nuclear capacity projected to decline through 2050

Nuclear plants produce about 20% of electricity generated in the United States, but nearly 25% of existing nuclear capacity without announced plans for retirement is expected to be removed from service by 2050, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

A study case in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook doesn’t project a large amount of nuclear capacity to be added. Only four reactors now under construction and some uprates to existing plants are expected to be completed by 2050.

“As more nuclear capacity is retired than built, and as other fuels such as natural gas and renewables gain market share, the nuclear share of the U.S. electricity generation mix declines from 20% in 2016 to 11% in 2050,” according to the EIA.

Between 2018 and 2050, 9.1 gigawatts of nuclear capacity is expected to be added. The EIA projection assumes that existing laws and policies don’t change. The four reactors at plants in South Carolina and Georgia will add 4.4 gigawatts of capacity, and another 4.7 gigawatts will be added because of uprates to existing plants. Uprates are changes to a plant allowing it to produce more electricity.

Offsetting the additions, 29.9 gigawatts of nuclear capacity is expected to be retired between 2018 and 2050. Between 2017 and 2026, five plants are set to be retired.