Cook: $7 Million In Negative Ads Don’t Stop Pryor, Ross From Poll Leads

The Koch Brothers, and other out-of-state interest groups, have spent over $6 million attacking Mark Pryor via television and radio ads, according to various sources. The Republican Governors Association has spent over $1 million attacking Mike Ross on the airwaves.

Yet in the face of the onslaught of attack ads, both Mark Pryor and Mike Ross have actually increased their support in the polls and are now leading their Republican opponents in the latest Talk Business-Hendrix College Poll. Small leads, granted, but leads nonetheless.

Since the last Talk Business-Hendrix Poll was taken in October, Ross has actually surged 7 points and now leads Asa Hutchinson, 44% to 43%.

Pryor ticked up 3.5 points since October 2013.

$7 million in attack ads have been thrown against these two Democrats in a state where President Obama is wildly unpopular and Republicans now hold 5 out of 6 Congressional seats, but Pryor and Ross still lead in the polls.

What is going on in Arkansas? It’s not supposed to be this way. If you believe conventional wisdom, Hutchinson and Cotton are supposed to be far ahead in the polls.

Here are five big picture reasons that may help explain why Ross and Pryor have these leads:

1) Personality Can Still Trump Partisanship in Arkansas
We’re a small state, which means we know our politicians personally and these personal relationships still make a difference when it comes to voting.

Mark Pryor is personally well-liked and his father, Senator David Pryor, is an Arkansas political legend. Voters know Mark Pryor and his family too well to buy into the GOP argument that the incumbent just does Obama’s bidding.

So far, Arkansans just haven’t warmed up to Tom Cotton. Cotton doesn’t come across as particularly friendly or personally engaging, but clearly he’s highly intelligent, a benefit of his Harvard education no doubt.

It’s the classic case of who would you rather have a beer with? Mark Pryor or Tom Cotton? You could imagine Pryor relaxed on a bar stool sharing funny stories with friends. Cotton, on the hand, seems too uptight to relax over a beer, sorta like he’d be thinking to himself that he should be out for a run instead of sipping suds. This is Arkansas, we choose beer drinking over exercise any day of the week.

For the Governor’s race, Arkansans have rejected Asa Hutchinson three times at the statewide level, with Asa losing his last race by a whopping 15 points to Mike Beebe. Arkansans just aren’t wild about Asa, which explains why he’s never gotten more than 46% of the vote in his previous races.

Arkansans are still getting to know Mike Ross, but they like what they’ve seen so far. Ross is painting himself as a Mike Beebe-type Democrat and data shows as folks get to know Ross better, his poll numbers have improved.

2) Moderate Conservatism
Arkansans prefer statewide Republican office-holders in the mold of Mike Huckabee or John Boozman – conservatives with some moderate tendencies, or at least who seem like it, who don’t go to extremes and will compromise pragmatically when warranted. I call it moderate conservatism.

Hutchinson could be in this category, but let’s see what he says and does after the primary.

Democrats don’t like these types of office-holders, but this school of Republicans doesn’t scare them as much as the other Republican school.

Tom Cotton is from the Senator Ted Cruz school of politics – far right, uncompromising with no hint of moderation and a bit of hard-heartedness thrown in for good measure. I think voters are starting to catch on that Cotton is just too far to the right. Cotton has not shown even a hint of moderation, which keeps his poll numbers from rising in a state with still strong centrist and populist leanings.

Finally, Democrats are scared of Cotton’s extremism which could help get their base out to the polls this year.

3) The Growing Gender Gap
Women are a key demographic this election cycle and Republicans are not only losing this group of voters, but the GOP is making it too easy for Democrats to expand the gap.

It’s in the Senate race where the gender gap is most prevalent, with the possibility of expanding. Cotton leads Pryor among men 48% to 41% with just 5% undecided, but Pryor leads Cotton among women 49% to 38% with 11% undecided.

Cotton’s Congressional votes make it easy for Pryor to pull undecided women voters over to his side. For example, Cotton voted against the Violence Against Women Act and voted against equal pay for women. How does Cotton justify these votes to women voters, to say nothing of his votes to cripple Medicare or votes against college student loans?

Ross also has a comfortable lead among women, 46% to 39%, with nearly 10% still undecided.

Finally, Republicans are so tone-deaf to women’s issues that the executive director for the Americans for Prosperity Arkansas chapter last week publicly attacked the very concept of pre-K.  That’s a gift that will keep on giving to Arkansas Democrats when they reach out to women voters.

4) Obamacare Fatigue
This category is probably not what you think it is. Yes, Obamacare is not popular in Arkansas, but frankly I think voters are getting tired of hearing about it.

The GOP has become a one-trick pony – all Obamacare, all the time. Nothing from them on job creation or improving public schools – just Obamacare attacks with no real plan to replace it.

My gut tells me voters are growing weary of this line of attack and they’re ready to hear more from Republicans, but the GOP refuses to offer anything else. I’m told by well-placed politicos that internal polls show some evidence of this theory.

Republicans have even tried to inject Obamacare into the Governor’s race, even though Mike Ross voted against the ACA and even voted to repeal it. Clearly, this GOP strategy against Ross hasn’t worked if you look at the polls.

I’ll make a bold prediction: In late October, public polls will show Obamacare is unpopular in Arkansas. The bold part of the prediction is that Obamacare won’t be quite as unpopular as it has been, maybe only a few more points less in unpopularity, but that small change could have major implications in the U.S. Senate race.

There will be more TV ads with dubious facts about Obamacare, but there will also be positive stories of Obamacare allowing folks to afford health insurance.

Look at it another way.  I’d bet roughly 85-90% of the attack ads against Mark Pryor have been Obamacare-related, meaning roughly $5.4 million in hard-hitting ads against the incumbent on one topic.  The result?  Pryor gained three points since the last Talk Business-Hendrix College poll.

5) Democratic Ads Have Worked
First, Mike Ross spent roughly $500,000 in television ads in January to introduce himself to voters. This expenditure was derided by Republican operatives and pundits, but Ross’s 7-point polling uptick proves the strategy worked.

Second, Democratically-aligned groups have been on the airwaves going after Tom Cotton and his record. This, in part, also helps explain why Cotton’s poll numbers remain essentially the same as they were last October. Democrats have defined the freshman Congressman as too reckless and extreme for Arkansas.

In the end, both races are going to remain very close, with future polling likely going back-and-forth on who is leading in the polls.

But the biggest news of the latest poll is that Mark Pryor and Mike Ross have withstood $7 million combined in attack ads, but their poll numbers have improved.

Something is going on in Arkansas politics. 2014 does not appear to be a repeat of 2010.