The Arkansas Election Line – a joint collaboration between Talk Business, The Tolbert Report, and Blue Hog Report – makes its first ratings change of the general election.
In the race for U.S. Congress, District 2, the Arkansas Election Line moves its rating from "Leans Griffin" to "Safe Griffin."
There are a number of factors behind this ratings change between Republican Tim Griffin, Democrat Joyce Elliott, Independent Lance Levi and Green Party nominee Lewis Kennedy. Notably, Griffin enjoys a safe lead in the polls and a safer lead in the fundraising category but it may be factors far beyond any candidates’ control that is helping the Republican in this race.
With less than 60 days to go, the overall voting climate in Arkansas remains favorable for the GOP in federal races. National political winds have produced momentum for many GOP candidates as the economy still struggles and Democratic initiatives have yet to elicit enthusiasm from a majority of voters.
Short of a major momentum shift for Elliott or Democrats as a whole, this seat is an increasingly safe GOP pick-up. The National Republican Congressional Committee’s decision to not make CD2 a major battleground is a tell-tale sign of its confidence in the outcome and we’ve yet to hear the national Democrats suggest a different result.
As more paid media exerts its influence in this race, we will re-evaluate, but today, Griffin gets a "safe" seat call.
The Arkansas Election Line issues election rankings for several high-profile state and federal races. Our ratings can be "strong", "safe", "lean" or "toss-up" depending on the perceived dynamics of a race.
ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS:
Jason Tolbert at The Tolbert Report
Matt Campbell at Blue Hog Report
NEXT: A review of Arkansas Congressional District 1.