Republican Steve Womack has a sizable lead over his Democratic challenger, David Whitaker, in the race to replace Cong. John Boozman in Arkansas’ Third District.
A new Talk Business Poll conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College shows Womack with a 24-point lead over Whitaker in Arkansas’ most Republican Congressional stronghold.
In a survey conducted on Wednesday night, August 25, 2010, Womack leads Whitaker 55-31% among 579 likely Arkansas voters in the district. Undecided voters stood at 14%.
You can view the full results of the poll and the questions asked at this link.
"The Third District has been a safe seat for Republican candidates for many years. Based on that voting history combined with the mood of the state trending Republican this cycle, I don’t find this baseline poll surprising," said Talk Business executive editor Roby Brock.
Dr. Jay Barth, with the Hendrix College Department of Politics and International Relations, helped craft and analyze the poll. He offered the following observations from the results:
- The area covered by Arkansas’s 3rd Congressional District has elected Republicans to Congress since 1966. Therefore, there is no surprise that Mayor Steve Womack has a strong lead in his race against David Whitaker.
- Additionally, Whitaker had no opposition for the Democratic nomination and is therefore just now introducing himself to voters. It is not surprising that just at half of the electorate has no opinion of the Democrat. Womack has been a high-profile mayor for years and had an intense primary and runoff this spring. This creates another advantage for the Republican.
- Womack runs well across demographic groups in the district.
- Geography: Womack runs particularly strong in Benton County, his home county and the county that creates the largest pool of votes in the district. At present, just at two-thirds of Benton County voters favor Womack. Whitaker is running stronger in counties with stronger Democratic voting traditions, such as Washington County and several more rural counties.
This poll was conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College. The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 4%, was completed using IVR survey technology on Wednesday, August 25, 2010 among 579 registered Arkansas voters in Congressional District 3 who indicated they were "likely" to vote in the November 2, 2010 general election. 84% of those surveyed have voted in a minimum of 2 of the last 4 general elections. Voters with a less frequent voting history were allowed in the sample to account for younger voters and first-time voters of all ages.
The poll was weighted by age categories based on 2008 general election exit poll data.
All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business and Hendrix College.
For interviews, Brock can be reached by email at email@example.com. Barth can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org.