The economic buzzword of the day is "double-dip," as in a "double-dip recession" not ice cream.

Worries about a potential second economic downturn have been the banter of many business talk shows and reports for the last few weeks, but is a "double-dip" a serious possibility?

In his Second Quarter Investment Review, Stephens Capital Management EVP Brian Bush noted that there have been 33 U.S. recessions dating back to 1854.

"Over that time frame, there have been only three recorded instances of a double-dip recession," he writes, adding that there have been five if you adopt a liberal definition for a double-dip recession.

To some, a double-dip recession occurs when following a recession the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) slides back into a negative trajectory after a quarter or two of positive growth.

Bush’s analysis suggests that a key characteristic of every double-dip recession involved "a severe contraction" in debt or available credit.

While commercial and industrial lending have been declining since 2008, according to federal statistics, Bush observed that "only recently have we seen a leveling off of the credit contraction."

That doesn’t imply that the lending environment is improving; it just isn’t getting worse.

"Our analysis suggests that the outlook for growth in the second half of 2010 is uncertain at best," concludes Bush. "And a double-dip recession is not out of the question."

Federal Reserve Bank officials have consistently downplayed the prospects for a double-dip recession.  However in the minutes released today from a meeting in late June, officials disclosed that the pace of the nation’s economic recovery has been slower than hoped for.

Despite nearly two years of stimulus injection and easy monetary policy, the Feds’ minutes question what they might do if the "outlook were to worsen appreciably."  This has led to recent discussions of an additional stimulus package.

Dr. Michael Pakko, chief economist with UALR’s Institute for Economic Advancement and a former research economist with the Fed’s St. Louis branch, says that predicting recessions and double-dip recessions are difficult because they are "usually preceded by some unanticipated event."

"If we were to witness a renewed downturn in the economy at this point, it would likely be in response to a new ‘shock’ that is, by its nature, unpredictable," Pakko tells Talk Business.

He argues that the term "double-dip recession" is not clearly defined and suggests that there is a school of thought that the U.S. has never experienced a double-dip recession.

He warns that defining a recession involves many economic indicators besides GDP, such as production, employment, and real income.

"In my opinion, much of the talk about a double-dip or even about renewed weakness in the economy is groundless.  The buzz about a double-dip seems to have intensified following the release of the June employment report, which was somewhat weaker than expected," says Pakko. "However, it is never wise to place too much emphasis on a single data observation."

Pakko describes the state of the current U.S. economy as "sluggish," but says jobs data suggests improvement.

From December 2009 through June 2010, he points out that private-sector payroll employment experienced six consecutive increases, with government employment "gyrating through the ups and downs of Census Bureau hiring."

Net employment is up by almost 900,000 jobs during that period, he said.

"That’s not a rate consistent with a robust recovery, but it is a clear upward trend," Pakko added.  "Experience during the most recent two recessions suggests that employment growth can be very sluggish during the early phases of an economic expansion – the so-called ‘jobless recovery.’  That’s what we’re seeing again this time."