The race for the Republican primary U.S. Senate nomination has a clear front-runner and the question to ask at this point is whether or not a candidate can mount a strong enough challenge for a competitive run-off.

Our latest Talk Business Poll of 1,357 statewide Republican voters shows that 3rd District Cong. John Boozman leads the crowded GOP Senate field with 46% of voters.  State Sen. Gilbert Baker is running a distant second with 14% of the vote with Jim Holt polling at 8%. 

None of the remaining five candidates poll higher than 5%, while undecided voters stand at 17%.

U.S. Senate – Republicans
46%  John Boozman
14%  Gilbert Baker
8%   Jim Holt
5%   Curtis Coleman
3%   Randy Alexander
3%   Kim Hendren
3%   Conrad Reynolds
1%   Fred Ramey
17%  Undecided

“Clearly, John Boozman has a commanding lead in this primary,” said Talk Business editor-in-chief Roby Brock.  “Gilbert Baker appears to be the most likely contender to make a run-off with Boozman, especially in light of Baker’s fundraising strength.  However, a more aggressive strategy from Baker and the other GOP challengers is going to be required after a near year-long campaign to make this a more competitive race.  If something dramatic doesn’t happen to alter the dynamics seen in the current trends, it is conceivable that Boozman could win this primary without a run-off.”

The poll, which has a margin of error of +/-3%, was taken on Tuesday, April 13th among likely Republican voters.  Zata3, a Washington, D.C.-based polling firm, conducted the automated calls and has no clients in the Senate race in Arkansas this election cycle.

Participants were given the opportunity to make one choice from all of the eligible candidates in their respective primary and were asked to rate the certainty of their vote.

The results are not weighted, meaning that we have not manipulated the numbers to reflect any previous election cycle(s).  Candidates, campaigns and their supporters are free to apply their own weighting to interpret the results. You can view the breakout of results here.

You can view the results of the Democratic Senate primary race at this link.

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